El lado oculto de las encuestas

Por Ramón Peralta                                                                                 

Luego de la primaria del 6 de octubre, la diputada   Karen Ricardo se quejaba de que el señor que aparecía en último lugar de las encuestas había ganado la primaria,  sin embargo los peledeistas no entendían como la diputada de la circunscripción uno había quedado en segundo lugar por encima del cañero.   Muchos dirigentes de las circunscripciones 2 y 3 se preguntaban, quienes eran los representantes de Karen, nadie conocía un dirigente que apoyara a la joven diputada.                                                                                                       

 Los dirigentes del PLD perdieron de vista que en la primaria abierta votaron personas que no estaban dentro del padrón de ese partido y que  su referente de alcalde era la bella diputada de la circunscripción uno

Luis Alberto gozaba del mayor respaldo interno y  el lado oculto de  las encuestas  mostraban bajas  tasa de rechazo  para su figura.

El  cañero se sintió traicionado,  porque  una victoria segura se convirtió en tercer lugar, pero su esquipo perdió de vista que los diputados dejaron sueltas sus estructuras y  la balanza se inclinó a favor de quien había hecho la campaña interna más agresiva. La estructura del partido le dio la espalda, porque había la percepción de que solo con Alfredo se perdía la alcaldía

Las encuestas no decían que  el valor de un seguidor de Luis Alberto había que multiplicarlo  de manera conservadora por 1.5, ya que una parte de quienes mostraron su intención de votar por Luis Alberto eran entusiastas miembros de la estructura  partidaria y que aparte de ir seguro a votar, también muchos de ellos  llevarían a otras personas.

El papel de Karen en el 2016, su buen manejo en los medios de comunicación, su posicionamiento en las encuestas la convertían en favorita   de quienes no conocían las interioridades del partido.

La lejanía  de la bella diputada con la estructura de su partido  evitó que su simpatía externa  se convirtiera en los votos que necesitaba para ser la candidata alcalde del PLD.

¿Cuál es el escenario municipal del 2024 para SDE?

Al momento de escribir esta línea, Luis Alberto es el candidato natural del PLD, en cualquier medición aparece muy por encima de todos los demás. Parece que navega solo.

Su popularidad sobrepasa por mucho al del actual alcalde y a lo interno de su partido parece no tener competencia.

Luis Alberto esta tan bien, que se está durmiendo en sus laureles y hay amenazas internas y externa que pueden troncharle el sueño a muchos de los que deseamos verlo convertido en el hombre que rescate el legado de Juancito.

Karen Ricardo  está  haciendo relaciones primarias con los regidores del PLD, se está acercando a la base de su partido y recientemente dio en el clavo con una declaraciones en contra del gobierno, que los principales medios nacionales le dieron difusión.

Dicen que ella aspira a senadora, pero del dicho al hecho hay mucho trecho.

Bolívar Valera  ha dicho que solo aspira a que el PLD gane en el 2024 y que simpatiza con una candidatura alcalde de Luis Alberto, pero  apena estamos en el 2021 y quien sabe que puede pensar después de la fiesta de año nuevo.

Las encuestas son fotografía del momento, que tienen un lado oculto que nadie quiere ver.

No basta con decir que Luis Alberto esta hoy en primer lugar, eso no le garantiza y ganar dentro de un año, en el lado oculto de las mediciones,   un político que hoy tiene  un 1% para alcalde puede armar una campaña en 11 meses  y derrotar al que hoy esta puntero.

Lo importante para el aspirante nuevo no es el porcentaje que tiene para una candidatura que ni siquiera ha dicho que aspira, lo que le da potencial para subir   de rango  es el nivel de conocimiento de la población sobre su figura y  como la comunidad percibe su actual trabajo  público.

Mi insignificante capacidad de análisis político me indican que el Boli  está  en capacidad de competir con éxito frente a Luis Alberto  y que tiene  potencial para ser un candidato ganador en las elecciones del 2024.

El Boli  como  discípulo de quien fue el  mejor alcalde  que ha tenido cualquier ciudad del gran Santo Domingo, está en condiciones de mercadearse  como el hombre que puede rescatar a Santo Domingo Este.

Las debilidades del Boli, Luis Alberto y Karen nadie se atreve a medirla en el lado oculto de  las encuestas.

El principal obstáculo interno  de  Karen es que muchos piensan que ella no representa al PLD y que sus intereses están  en el Distrito Nacional.

Luis Alberto  tiene la debilidad de que parece indeciso y eso provoca la percepción de que en caso de ser electo, Luis Henríquez  sería el alcalde detrás del trono  y el resto de la dirigencia morada quedaría marginada.

El Boli tiene en contra, que detrás de esa figura extrovertida se esconde un hombre tímido, lo cual impide que desarrolle al máximo su potencial político y es por eso que se convierte en un quita gusto, ya que  desde que alguien lo valora para alcalde se precipita en aclarar que no aspira

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