Encuesta proyecta 52.16 para Manuel Jiménez en elecciones municipales de febrero del 2024
Por Ramón Peralta
En el panorama político de Santo Domingo Este, el escenario actual revela a Manuel Jiménez como el precandidato más prominente para la alcaldía por el Partido Revolucionario Moderno (PRM). Con un sólido respaldo ciudadano, Jiménez ha obtenido un notable 25.2% de la intención del voto, situándose en la primera posición de las preferencias electorales. Este desempeño lo ubica como una figura central en el panorama electoral, demostrando su capacidad para atraer el apoyo de una significativa porción del electorado.
El segundo lugar en esta contienda lo ocupa Luis Alberto Tejeda, quien postula su candidatura bajo la insignia del Partido de la Liberación Dominicana (PLD). Tejeda ha logrado asegurar un considerable 19.6% de la preferencia electoral, estableciendo así un competidor sólido en esta carrera política.
El tercer puesto en la encuesta es ocupado por Bolívar Valera, quien ha conseguido ganar un 16.1% de simpatía entre los votantes. Una revelación reciente por parte de Valera, en la que declara su intención de sumar sus votos al candidato alcalde seleccionado por el PRM en su convención interna, añade un elemento ventajoso para el candidato del partido oficialista..
Julio Romero, de la Fuerza del Pueblo, se posiciona en un respetable cuarto lugar con un respaldo del 14.9%. Asimismo, Dío Astacio del PRM se sitúa en el quinto lugar con un 7.8% de apoyo, seguido por Bertico Santana con un 6.7%.
Otros aspirantes en la carrera presentan puntuaciones menores en las preferencias electorales. Adán Peguero logra un 3.1%, mientras que Merido Torres obtiene un 0.8%. Una parte del electorado que ronda el 5% muestra rechazo o desconocimiento en relación a los candidatos, lo que resalta la necesidad de estrategias de comunicación más efectivas para captar su atención y ganarse su voto.
Es relevante destacar que, si bien Manuel Jiménez aún no es el candidato oficial del PRM para la alcaldía, un patrón constante ha sido observado en los análisis cualitativos de encuestas previas. Estos análisis indican que el candidato que lidera las preferencias al ganar las primarias internas tiende a recibir un respaldo significativo del 80% de los simpatizantes del partido que no resultaron victoriosos en la contienda interna. Basándose en este patrón, se proyecta que Jiménez podría obtener aproximadamente un 52.16% de los votos en febrero, lo que posicionaría su candidatura de manera sólida y con proyecciones favorables para mantener su posición como alcalde sin enfrentar mayores contratiempos.
Históricamente, los análisis y resultados cualitativos han demostrado que, cuando un candidato emerge victorioso en las primarias internas a pesar de no ser el favorito externo, la probabilidad de éxito en las elecciones generales son casi nulas. Estos patrones refuerzan la relevancia de escoger en las primarias al candidato de más aceptación como un factor determinante en la construcción de una campaña exitosa.
En conclusión, la carrera hacia la alcaldía de Santo Domingo Este se encuentra en una etapa crucial, marcada por el liderazgo de Manuel Jiménez en las encuestas de intención de voto.
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